[Bitop Review] Crude Oil Prices Rebound for the Second Consecutive Day!
On Friday, May 17, in the late Asian trading session, both U.S. and international crude oil prices experienced a narrow fluctuation and increase, currently trading around $79.5 per barrel. Continuing the momentum of the previous day’s rebound, oil prices rose for the second consecutive day. As of the week ending May 11, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. recorded 222,000. Last week, this figure had risen to its highest level in over eight months, but this week’s slight decrease reversed part of last week’s increase. The decline in U.S. initial unemployment claims has strengthened the rebound in oil prices. The labor market is gradually easing, and the trend of inflation returning downward has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September. As the U.S. enters the peak consumption season, there are signs of stabilization and rebound, with the crack spread slightly improving. Currently, there are highlights in market demand, and if the strength continues, it will help restore market confidence.
While the U.S. gasoline crack spread has rebounded, the oil price rebound yesterday was accompanied by a slight drop in the monthly spread structure. This indicates that oil prices still lack clear guidance and have poor sustainability. Despite two consecutive days of rebound, oil prices remain in a recent fluctuating pattern, maintaining a repeated oscillatory trend. Recently, many institutions have made predictions about the OPEC+ ministerial meeting in June regarding production cut decisions, with significant disagreements. More fluctuations are expected in the future.
Yesterday, crude oil dipped and rebounded, forming a doji candlestick, with the lowest point stabilizing at 78.18 and reaching a high of 79.85. However, it still closed below this high, failing to break and close higher after the peak, indicating short-term fluctuations will continue. The daily chart shows signs of a double bottom formation, suggesting that oil prices might continue to test the resistance at the 80 level. On the four-hour chart, after crude oil fell to 76.7, it quickly rebounded, forming a long lower shadow candlestick. It then rebounded near the 79 level. Currently, oil prices are operating near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and is moving upwards, while the MACD also formed a golden cross and is trending upwards, with the energy bar turning red. The short-term trend has shifted from weak to strong.
In summary, due to the weak CPI data bolstering expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, crude oil quickly rebounded after falling to around 76.7. The daily chart indicates a double bottom formation, suggesting a continued upward test of the 80 level. For intraday operations, consider going long in the 78–78.3 range, targeting near the 80 level. Overall, the short-term strategy for crude oil today should prioritize buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at 80.5–81.0 and short-term support at 78.5–78.0.
Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.
